June rainfall could determine whether British Columbia avoids another severe wildfire season, according to a provincial fire information officer who says drought conditions remain a growing concern across the Kamloops Fire Centre.
Emelie Peacock told the Chronicle the overall severity of the 2026 wildfire season will largely depend on how much sustained rain arrives through June, noting long-range precipitation forecasts remain unreliable beyond about a week.
“Essentially, we’re really looking at June and hoping that June will bring us that consistent rain over time,” Peacock said.
She pointed out the last 20 years have trended toward warmer-than-normal summers and longer, more intense fire seasons, with the 2026 wildfire season predicted to be no different.
“Over the last decade, seven of our 10 biggest fire seasons have happened,” Peacock said.
“Temperature increasing and hectares burned increasing, it’s a steady upward trend of both of those.”
The B.C. Wildfire Service released its seasonal outlook earlier this spring and, while it examines the province as a whole, it also includes significant detail for the Kamloops Fire Centre.
According to the report, moderate drought conditions continue to be a concern across much of the region following a notably dry summer in 2025. Peacock said elevated drought-code values, which measure deep moisture levels in forest fuels such as dense organic material and large logs, remain a concern heading into spring. High drought-code values are associated with more intense fires.
The South Thompson region is specifically identified as one of several areas expected to carry elevated drought conditions into the 2026 season, even if normal spring precipitation arrives, the report stated.
Peacock said warm and dry conditions at the start of the year, along with a very hot and dry start to May, have contributed to these drought conditions. There have been periods of cooler weather and rain, with more on the way for early June, but those patterns have not been sustained for long periods.
Another major concern for the Interior is snowpack. Higher-than-normal winter freezing levels resulted in record-low snow accumulation at valley bottoms throughout parts of the Thompson region and Okanagan. Peacock said those conditions increase the likelihood of early-season grass fires as warm, dry weather develops.
“That’s another factor that we’re looking at going into the season ahead,” she said.
“It’s been very anomalously dry, especially in those areas where, unless you’re hiking up into the alpine, the places where most folks live have certainly been snow-free pretty much all winter long.”
The report also highlighted unusually warm winter conditions across B.C., including parts of the Interior. Several communities experienced one of the warmest winters on record dating back to the late 1800s, with January and February both warmer and drier than normal.
Elsewhere in the province, multi-year drought conditions continue to be a concern in northeastern B.C., while western portions of the Cariboo Fire Centre, including the Chilcotin, also remain under moderate drought conditions heading into the season, the report revealed.
Forecasters say larger climate patterns may also shape the summer ahead. The Pacific is currently transitioning away from La Niña conditions, with seasonal models suggesting a possible shift toward El Niño by mid-summer. While El Niño often increases the likelihood of warmer weather, the wildfire service noted the relationship between El Niño and wildfire activity in Western Canada remains unclear.